April 24, 2011
Yes, I know - I haven't updated this in awhile. I've been keeping up with the campaign, but it's been a hectic week and a half. I apologize to my faithful readers (if I have any) for my delay.
For those who have continued to follow the campaign, you'll know that the NDP has been on the rise in polls. Whether this will translate into seats for Jack Layton and his party, we will have to wait until election night to find out.
Looking at another third party that was seemingly on the rise, we can turn to the Liberal Democrats in the United Kingdom. In the 2010 election there, a massive sweep of "Cleggmania" was expected to wipe out the Labour Party and turn the election into a race between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems. At the end of the day, the Lib Dems kept their share of the vote roughly from the previous general election and actually lost five seats in the process.
There are really two scenarios that could play out due to the rise of the NDP: 1) Left-leaning voters split their "anti-Harper" votes between the NDP and Liberals, allowing Conservative candidates to come up the middle; or 2) Left-leaning voters, seeing the rise of the NDP, coalesce around Jack Layton and provide him with enough seats to overtake the Liberals as the Official Opposition.
To be entirely honest, I would be far more comfortable with the NDP as the Official Opposition. I disagree with everything the NDP stands for, but I respect New Democrats far more than Liberals because New Democrats have principles that they stick to no matter what. This is why I'm a Conservative - because Conservatives also tend to be more principled. Liberals, on the other hand, occupy the "mushy middle" of Canadian politics and don't put the focus on what is the best measures policy wise, but what will best benefit them politically.
It will also be interesting to see what the rise of the NDP means for Toronto-area ridings that have always voted Liberal. The two options I outlined earlier, regarding either the Tories coming up the middle or more New Democrats getting elected could be seen to have the greatest impact right here in Toronto and in other urban centres where Liberals/New Democrats are elected in far greater numbers than Conservatives.
I guess we'll find out in eight days!
I read this before the election but chose not to comment because of the line quoted below:
ReplyDelete"because Conservatives also tend to be more principled."
I can't even begin to express to what degree I disagree with you (SO STRONGLY), so I will just leave it at that - agree to disagree (SO STRONGLY).
I will say that I find it interesting how you say the NDP "have principles that they stick to no matter what." I was discussing with a friend of mine a couple of days ago on how within a few hours of becoming the Official Opposition we discover that the NDP are just as opportunist and self serving as they accuse other political parties of being.