October 5, 2011
I realize it has been quite some time since my last post - so I apologize!
Election season across Canada is in full-swing. On Monday, P.E.I. re-elected its Liberal premier to a second majority mandate, yesterday Manitoba handed Greg Sellinger and the NDP its fourth-consecutive majority term, and people in the Northwest Territory also voted on Monday.
Tomorrow marks election day in Ontario. And while polls have come out showing that Dalton McGuinty may win a third-consecutive majority government, I think that speculation is wrong. I'm no pollster and I'm not a pundit either, but I think Ontario will have a minority government after tomorrow evening is through.
The Tories will make gains in Southwestern and Eastern Ontario, as well as make pick-ups in the 905 region. That said, the PC's shouldn't be surprised to be shutout once again in Toronto, with the lion's share of seats in the city going to the Liberals. The Liberals should (and I'm sure they are) expect to lose a number of seats in the North, with the Nippising riding heading to the PC's and the remaining bulk (aside from perhaps Sudbury) heading to the NDP.
In all, I think we're looking at about 44 Liberals, 41 PC's and 22 New Democrats in the next legislature, meaning Ontario is in for an interesting political ride over the next few months and years, as the jockeying for the next election begins as soon as the results of this one are known.
As I said - I'm not an expert, so don't take these results as a prediction made with vast number-crunching and intelligent analysis. It's just a stab at a seat projection made with considering regional differences and a quick look at the last poll from the Toronto Star.
Showing posts with label dalton mcguinty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dalton mcguinty. Show all posts
Wednesday, 5 October 2011
Monday, 1 August 2011
Provincial Politics
August 1, 2011
It is now officially August - and in just over eight weeks, Ontario will head to the polls and decide whether to return Dalton McGuinty's Liberals to office or elect a new government (while many say the only other contender is Tim Hudak and the PC's, I don't want to write off the NDP just yet).
To be entirely honest, my opinion of Dalton McGuinty is not very high; I think he has been an economic disaster for the province - both before, during and after the recession - and I do not trust him with public finances, given the massive deficit and Ontario becoming a "have-not" province. Before Liberal supporters comment and try to sway me, let me say this: I've already heard the Liberal talking points about 60 per cent of the jobs created in Canada being here in Ontario. What I haven't heard is how you plan to make Ontario a "have" province and how you plan to reduce the massive deficit.
My other issue with Dalton McGuinty is this - his government is very much a fan of the "nanny state." I fully support regulation when it makes sense (such as on guns), but the Liberals seem to over-regulate and have done so since coming to office in 2003. Pesticides? Fine, they have a negative impact on the environment; pit bulls was a ridiculous one and so is the junk food ban in Ontario schools, coming into effect September 2011. It seems the Liberals are comfortable telling me what to do and when to do it; I don't like that one bit.
However... Tim Hudak and the PC's seem to think the way to win the election is to simply be angry about the last eight years and try to stir up that anger and hope it motivates people to clobber McGuinty. While it is very true that the easiest way to get people to vote is to get them pissed them off at the incumbent, simply not being McGuinty isn't enough. Furthermore, the PC's have some pretty reckless policies themselves.
Yes, I support the Green Energy Act (GEA) that the Liberals have brought in. It makes good economic sense and good environmental sense. I know the PC's are railing on about the impact the GEA has on energy prices, but the Pembina Institute has released a study that debunks that. In fact, the study shows that because of the GEA, Ontarians will likely save money over the next 15 years.
Are there flaws with the GEA? Of course. It puts a lot of power in the hands of the provincial government and has an impact on local communities. But the NDP have addressed this by proposing to give back power to the municipalities. The PC's, instead of vowing to kill this legislation (and risk legal challenges for already in-progress contracts), should borrow the NDP policy.
This of course, brings me to the NDP itself. Andrea Horwath very well could be the wild card in this race. She hasn't received a lot of media attention since becoming the leader of the Ontario NDP and an election campaign is her chance to make herself known. With the success of the NDP federally, there is potential for the ONDP to benefit as well. We'll have to see how Horwath uses her federal partners to assist the campaign.
It will also be interesting to see how the Ontario Green Party, under new leader Mike Schreiner, does in this campaign. There are a few seats where the party is competitive, including Bruce - Grey - Owen Sound, so if they can maneuver resources into seats where they have a chance, there very well could be some Green in the new legislature.
Because I try to be somewhat balanced in providing readers with sources to make their own decisions, I encourage you to check out the Progressive Conservative platform and the NDP platform. The policy section of the Ontario Liberal website was unresponsive at the time of writing this post, but their website is available here. Lastly, the Green Party platform is available as well.
It is now officially August - and in just over eight weeks, Ontario will head to the polls and decide whether to return Dalton McGuinty's Liberals to office or elect a new government (while many say the only other contender is Tim Hudak and the PC's, I don't want to write off the NDP just yet).
To be entirely honest, my opinion of Dalton McGuinty is not very high; I think he has been an economic disaster for the province - both before, during and after the recession - and I do not trust him with public finances, given the massive deficit and Ontario becoming a "have-not" province. Before Liberal supporters comment and try to sway me, let me say this: I've already heard the Liberal talking points about 60 per cent of the jobs created in Canada being here in Ontario. What I haven't heard is how you plan to make Ontario a "have" province and how you plan to reduce the massive deficit.
My other issue with Dalton McGuinty is this - his government is very much a fan of the "nanny state." I fully support regulation when it makes sense (such as on guns), but the Liberals seem to over-regulate and have done so since coming to office in 2003. Pesticides? Fine, they have a negative impact on the environment; pit bulls was a ridiculous one and so is the junk food ban in Ontario schools, coming into effect September 2011. It seems the Liberals are comfortable telling me what to do and when to do it; I don't like that one bit.
However... Tim Hudak and the PC's seem to think the way to win the election is to simply be angry about the last eight years and try to stir up that anger and hope it motivates people to clobber McGuinty. While it is very true that the easiest way to get people to vote is to get them pissed them off at the incumbent, simply not being McGuinty isn't enough. Furthermore, the PC's have some pretty reckless policies themselves.
Yes, I support the Green Energy Act (GEA) that the Liberals have brought in. It makes good economic sense and good environmental sense. I know the PC's are railing on about the impact the GEA has on energy prices, but the Pembina Institute has released a study that debunks that. In fact, the study shows that because of the GEA, Ontarians will likely save money over the next 15 years.
Are there flaws with the GEA? Of course. It puts a lot of power in the hands of the provincial government and has an impact on local communities. But the NDP have addressed this by proposing to give back power to the municipalities. The PC's, instead of vowing to kill this legislation (and risk legal challenges for already in-progress contracts), should borrow the NDP policy.
This of course, brings me to the NDP itself. Andrea Horwath very well could be the wild card in this race. She hasn't received a lot of media attention since becoming the leader of the Ontario NDP and an election campaign is her chance to make herself known. With the success of the NDP federally, there is potential for the ONDP to benefit as well. We'll have to see how Horwath uses her federal partners to assist the campaign.
It will also be interesting to see how the Ontario Green Party, under new leader Mike Schreiner, does in this campaign. There are a few seats where the party is competitive, including Bruce - Grey - Owen Sound, so if they can maneuver resources into seats where they have a chance, there very well could be some Green in the new legislature.
Because I try to be somewhat balanced in providing readers with sources to make their own decisions, I encourage you to check out the Progressive Conservative platform and the NDP platform. The policy section of the Ontario Liberal website was unresponsive at the time of writing this post, but their website is available here. Lastly, the Green Party platform is available as well.
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