Election: Ontario

October 5, 2011

I realize it has been quite some time since my last post - so I apologize!

Election season across Canada is in full-swing. On Monday, P.E.I. re-elected its Liberal premier to a second majority mandate, yesterday Manitoba handed Greg Sellinger and the NDP its fourth-consecutive majority term, and people in the Northwest Territory also voted on Monday.

Tomorrow marks election day in Ontario. And while polls have come out showing that Dalton McGuinty may win a third-consecutive majority government, I think that speculation is wrong. I'm no pollster and I'm not a pundit either, but I think Ontario will have a minority government after tomorrow evening is through.

The Tories will make gains in Southwestern and Eastern Ontario, as well as make pick-ups in the 905 region. That said, the PC's shouldn't be surprised to be shutout once again in Toronto, with the lion's share of seats in the city going to the Liberals. The Liberals should (and I'm sure they are) expect to lose a number of seats in the North, with the Nippising riding heading to the PC's and the remaining bulk (aside from perhaps Sudbury) heading to the NDP.

In all, I think we're looking at about 44 Liberals, 41 PC's and 22 New Democrats in the next legislature, meaning Ontario is in for an interesting political ride over the next few months and years, as the jockeying for the next election begins as soon as the results of this one are known.

As I said - I'm not an expert, so don't take these results as a prediction made with vast number-crunching and intelligent analysis. It's just a stab at a seat projection made with considering regional differences and a quick look at the last poll from the Toronto Star.